Editor’s Note: One of the biggest challenges in today’s market is knowing when a trend is real.
By the time it shows up in earnings or headlines, the move is often already underway. That’s why I’ve been paying close attention to a different set of signals lately.
It’s also why our colleagues at Stansberry Research put together their new which focuses on how to spot these shifts earlier, before they’re reflected in the numbers.
Today, I’ve asked hedge fund veteran Josh Baylin to share what he calls the “information gap” – the space between what people are actually experiencing and what the market has recognized.
That gap can reveal demand, sentiment and behavior shifts well before Wall Street adjusts.
Josh also shares a few simple ways to track these signals yourself… and how they can point to emerging trends earlier than traditional analysis. You can read his full breakdown below – and for a deeper look at how he’s applying this approach right now.
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Late last year, I stood in front of a room of more than a thousand investors in Las Vegas.
These were smart, successful people… folks who take the markets seriously.
I asked a simple question: “How many of you have used Tesla’s Full Self-Driving?”
Very few hands went up.
That surprised me – because I’ve been using it for nearly five years.
In fact, a week earlier, I’d picked up a friend from the airport and asked him to take the driver’s seat while Full Self-Driving handled the rest. During our 30-mile trip, his hands barely touched the wheel.
What he said when we arrived stuck with me: “I would argue I still haven’t driven a Tesla.”
That gap – between what I experience daily and what a room full of sophisticated investors hasn’t touched – is information.
And here’s the key: You can use that gap to your advantage.
It can reveal where the market is headed, before most investors even realize a shift is happening.
Take a look…
Human Behavior Leaves Tracks
As I often say, truth reveals itself in behavior before it shows up in reports.
That behavior leaves traces out in the world. I call these observable surfaces – places where real people reveal what they want, need, believe, or fear before Wall Street models it.
Sometimes the signal is loud – like in 2007, when I was first in line for the iPhone with a hundred people lined up behind me. The crowd had already voted. Demand was visible, even if Wall Street hadn’t adjusted yet.
Other times, the signal is quiet. An empty room. A technology debated but not experienced. A product that everyone has an opinion on, but few people actually use.
Loud signals tell you one thing. Quiet signals tell another.
Both are data… if you know where to look.
Investing legend Peter Lynch famously said to invest in what you know. He found ideas by paying attention to what his wife bought at the mall and what his kids obsessed over.
The lesson wasn’t homespun wisdom. It was analytical. Lynch understood that human behavior is a leading indicator.
Investor and author Chris Camillo took this idea further decades later. He called this idea social arbitrage – shifts you can spot in the culture before Wall Street notices. He wasn’t reading filings. He was watching people.
Sentiment Signals You Can Use to Invest
We’re seeing this on a much larger scale all the time, thanks to technology. Human behavior leaves digital footprints everywhere – from search queries and downloads… to bets and reviews.
Each is an observable surface. And it’s a window into sentiment. Here are a few ways to get started…
1. Searches Reveal the Questions People Are Asking
Google Trends is one of the most underused tools to reveal these observable surfaces.
Searches don’t show purchases. But they do show intent.
And intent precedes revenue.
When searches spike for phrases like “Ozempic side effects,” “home solar tax credit,” or “best pickleball paddle,” you’re seeing millions of people independently asking the same questions.
That’s coordinated curiosity.
By the time a company reports “strong demand,” the signal has already passed through search.
2. App Downloads Reveal Changes in Behavior
App rankings show behavior crossing from curiosity into action.
When an app moves from No. 50 to No. 5, that’s thousands of people changing what they do, at the same time.
Back in 2016, social media app Snapchat reached No. 1 on Apple’s App Store for the first time. A few months later, Snapchat released camera glasses through vending machines in Los Angeles. I drove there to try to buy a pair.
They were sold out.
That scarcity wasn’t hype. It was information about a trend Snapchat’s app ranking had already hinted was coming. People wanted the company’s product badly enough to hunt for it.
3. Prediction ÃÛÌÒ´«Ã½s Reveal What People Believe
Here’s an observable surface most investors still ignore: prediction markets.
Platforms like Polymarket let people bet real money on outcomes in world events – elections, policy decisions, regulatory approvals, and product launches.
Unlike pundits or polls, the bettors in prediction markets have skin in the game.
People don’t bet real money on what sounds reasonable. They bet on what they believe.
Historically, these markets have often been more accurate than expert consensus – especially when they diverge sharply from conventional wisdom.
When people risk capital, they tend to tell the truth.
Why Some Signals Look Different
One distinction matters… the difference between consumers and businesses.
Consumer signals move fast, but they can be noisy. Meanwhile, enterprise signals move slowly, but they tend to stick.
A surge in consumer adoption might fade. Enterprise adoption usually doesn’t.
When companies commit to budget, training, and workflow changes, they’re placing long-term bets.
The most powerful moments occur when multiple observable surfaces converge… when consumers pull something forward and enterprises quietly lock it in.
Those moments rarely show up first in stock prices.
Paying Attention Is Your Edge
Institutions don’t lack intelligence.
They lack flexibility.
By the time institutional capital acts on what search trends, app rankings, and prediction markets are already showing, the signal is often stale.
As an individual investor, you don’t have that constraint.
You can check Google Trends in seconds… see where real money is betting on outcomes right now… and watch behavior change this week – not next quarter.
Sometimes the crowd tells you something by lining up outside an Apple Store.
Sometimes it tells you something by not raising a hand in a room full of investors.
Either way, the truth shows up first on observable surfaces.
The signals are out there.
They show up in what people search… what they download… what they talk about… and what they’re willing to bet on.
The only question is whether you recognize them early enough to act.
In my , I show how I track these kinds of behavioral signals — along with other forms of “shadow data” — to identify trends before they show up in earnings or stock prices.
I also walk through the system step by step… and share a current opportunity it’s flagging right now.
You can and see how to apply it yourself.
Good investing,
Josh Baylin
Senior Analyst, Stansberry Research
P.S. Most investors focus on financials, analyst calls, and headlines. But by the time those signals appear, the market has often already moved. Josh takes a different approach, looking at behavior instead. What people search, download, and pay attention to can reveal shifts earlier. In today’s fast-moving, tech-driven market, that edge can matter. He recently recorded a free presentation showing how he tracks these signals and what they’re pointing to right now.
